The holidays are fast approaching as we move toward the end of the current year and look optimistically forward to the challenges and opportunities that will come our way in 2020.  To be sure, we are hopeful things will go better for all of us as we continue to work our way through and out of a what remains somewhat of a flat, but stable, market in our area in terms of the number of new homes constructed and sales made annually the last five years.  With positive things happening such as the elimination of job killing government regulations, especially at federal level; stabilizing costs of materials; continuing near record low interest rates; and what appears to be gradual but still growing confidence in the overall economy, we have much to be thankful for.

考虑到我们对当地市场的了解, I thought it would be beneficial if all members of our Association had access to the content of a recent interview conducted with NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz wherein, 他谈到了2020年的“增长衰退”和住房问题.  所提出的全部问题以及迪茨对这些问题的回答如下:

NAHB经济学家罗伯特·迪茨谈到2020年的“增长衰退”和住房

Q&A with the National Association of Home Builders’ chief economist to answer some of the industry’s burning questions about the housing market and economic forecast.

资深编辑迈克·贝恩| 2019年10月22日

这是经济周期的第一个阶段? Will the next recession be a mild one? These are the questions inevitably asked whenever home builders get together and an industry economist like Robert Dietz is on stage. 

Dietz worked as an economist for the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation before joining NAHB in 2005, where he currently leads a group of 12 economists producing housing forecasts and analysis across several housing metrics. 

我们问了他一些房屋建筑商目前面临的紧迫问题, like where the economy is headed, 抵押贷款利率对销售的影响, 住房政策制定者应该注意哪些供给方面的问题.

问:你目前对美国经济的预测是什么.S. 它是否涉及经济衰退?

A  我们的预测窗口将持续到2021年底, 而且我们目前的预测表上还没有出现全面衰退. 

至少两年来，我们一直有一个相当一致的宏观预测. We thought 2018 was going to be a fairly strong year because the average GDP growth was 3.4% [in 2017]. 但它的增长率略低于这个数字，为2.我们认为这是由于国际贸易的影响. 今年我们预计将放缓至2.3% growth rate, 然后在2020年和2021年，我们会看到它进一步放缓, 这两年的增长率都在1%到2%之间. In fact, in 2021 we predict a 1.5% growth rate. 一些经济学家称之为“增长型衰退”.” 

在增长衰退中，偶尔会出现疲软的季度. 失业率开始上升. It will still be fairly low, 但我们认为不会低于4%, 这意味着我们会有一些疲软的就业市场报告. 

问:是什么导致或将导致gdp和就业增长放缓? 

A  我们认为，一些宏观风险因素将导致经济放缓. 其中一些已经被烤进蛋糕里了. For example, the reason 2018 had relatively solid growth was because of tax reform and tax cuts, 吸引了大量的商业投资. 

That stimulus effect is over, so now we have drags, such as the ongoing trade wars, 哪些因素对制造业和农业部门产生了影响, as well as clear local housing market impacts from the weakness in those two sectors. 

另一个宏观因素是劳动力市场依然吃紧. 这是一个好消息/坏消息的情况. The unemployment rate is 3.7%, which is fantastic. 这有利于租赁住房需求，也有利于待售住房需求. But it can be tough to fill construction industry jobs when productivity growth [GDP] isn’t strong enough and you don’t have wage growth sufficient to lift labor force participation, 这意味着你没有可用的工人储备, and therefore, you get slowing job creation. 

问:你提到了贸易政策对当地房地产市场的影响. How so? 

A  As a result of recent trade policies, agriculture has declined for the last two years. 玉米和大豆价格同比下跌50%. Exports have gone down. All of that has reduced housing demand and economic activity in some agricultural areas.

对于制造业，我们有一些详细的分析. 我们做了一个叫做住宅建筑地理指数的东西, 我们用它来跟踪当地的市场情况. 我们不坐地铁，因为很多人都坐地铁. 我们所做的是跟踪区域情况. For example, 我们发现，如果你比较大城市郊区和远郊, 去年，郊区发展得更快了.

我们的预测窗口将持续到2021年底, 而且我们目前的预测表上还没有出现全面衰退. 

But another cut that we did with this index was to look at areas where a large share of employment is attributable to manufacturing. As manufacturing softened, what we noticed is that single-family construction in those manufacturing areas also declined.

我们在去年第二季度就发现了这一点, 制造业地区的单户住宅许可下降了不到4%. So, you have definite housing weakness that tend to be dependent on manufacturing and exporting, 这是贸易战的后果.

The plan on this index, going forward, 是更新所有之前的地区差异吗, and in the next quarter, we’ll introduce a new one. So, we’re talking among ourselves now. 如果是第三季度，我们会去农业地区吗? 大学城或有很多联排别墅的地区? There are a lot of different options; the idea being that everybody can come up with a top 10 list of something. We want to stay away from those.

I like this regional thing because it connects the macro elements that we’re talking about to where builders are building. By the way, 当我们观察这个国家的其他地方, non-manufacturing areas were down, but they were only down a little bit, so a lot of the recent weakness in single-family construction is concentrated in manufacturing areas. 

问:那通货膨胀和利率呢? What do you expect from the Fed? 

A  So you have trade conflict, slowing job creation, 然后我们仍然要警惕任何通胀压力, 尽管通货膨胀在当前的周期中已经消失了. For that reason, the Federal Reserve raising the fund rate by 100 basis points in 2018 was too aggressive. 当时的通胀水平不足以要求采取这种政策立场.

The Fed’s job is to maintain maximum employment and prevent inflation, so it’s going to be vigilant. That may mean that while the Fed has definitely moved into a dovish posture—it cut rates in September and we think it’s going to cut rates again, perhaps twice more after that—but it may offer a smaller number of rate cuts than Wall Street expects.

问:这次复苏始于建筑商瞄准高端买家, luxury homes, 同时注重打造入门级产品, 过去的经济复苏通常是由哪方面启动的, came later. After a growth recession, would we see upscale building picking up first again?

A  No. When we look at inventories right now, 这个高端市场的增长潜力并不大, 哪一个是建造者最容易建造的. I say “easiest” with some reservation, as there is no market in building that is “easy.“但是在——我们姑且叫它风俗市场吧——规模更大, higher priced homes, 那里有更多的转售库存. 这一市场份额约占新屋开工量的20%. I expect that market to hold flat. 

我们期望在入门级(住宅)市场看到增长. 它只是开始断断续续，一直很缓慢. It’s kind of been two steps forward, three steps back on entry level, and, if anything, in the last year, 更像是前进三步，后退三步. What we saw in the geography index is that the places where there was a lot of potential for entry-level market expansion were those areas where there was either higher density, single-family detached—so, 较小的房屋或联排别墅建设. 

我们期望在入门级(住宅)市场看到增长. 只是开始断断续续……

Now, 如果你想想联排别墅建造的地方, 大城市有很好的例子, 在靠近公共交通的郊区有联排别墅的地方. But in a lot of cases, 那种高密度的独栋住宅, 独栋独立式住宅——正出现在内郊区. When we looked at the geography index, what we found was that those large metro suburbs really slowed down the most due to the housing affordability crunch at the end of 2018 and into the first part of this year. 

这是前进三步，后退三步. A lot of builders were getting into entry level, but they pulled back at the start of 2019. Now that interest rates are lower—to the extent that builders’ financing channels are open—I think we’re going to see expansion at that lower end for the remainder of this part of the cycle.

So, in the high-end market, 没有很大的增长潜力, but it’s relatively stable, partly because a significant share of older buyers are large cash or large down-payment buyers. 入门级市场的增长潜力更大，但波动性也更大.

As a result, some quarters may be stronger, 我们认为这类产品会在哪里发展, and other quarters—because of those buyers seeking out entry-level homes—are going to be more sensitive to changes in housing affordability conditions. 我们在2018年秋季看到了这一点，当时抵押贷款利率达到5%. 高贷款价值的抵押贷款买家, 没有大笔付款的潜在首次mg冰球突破试玩者, they’re going to be very sensitive to those kinds of interest rates and down payment requirements. 

抵押贷款利率在2017年和2017年上升, for some house shoppers, 是不是让人产生了购买的紧迫感. What impact, at this point of the economic cycle, might declining/stable low mortgage rates have or not have on buyers and on builder confidence?

A  买家前景相对谨慎. 如果你看看消费者信心指数, they’re a little off their highs, but they’re near 20-year lows, so we’re in a pretty good position, even if they’ve been reduced this year because of the stock market decline at the end of 2018 and the partial government shutdown.

但要记住的另一件事是，对于首次mg冰球突破试玩者来说, they have to have the down payment to be able to benefit from the low interest rate. I think that is a challenge because, as home prices and construction costs continue to rise faster than income growth, that down payment requirement has become increasingly out of reach for a growing number of first-time buyers. Sometimes when we focus on the rates, we’re missing the ability to translate the potential demand into somebody who can claim it. 

In addition—and this has been my thing for the last four or five years—we can’t forget the supply side. 大约75%的建筑商不是高产的, 通过华尔街获得融资的全国房屋建筑商. 他们是小型的区域性建筑商，通过银行获得融资, particularly community banks. When we do our quarterly surveys of the financing conditions for acquisition development construction loans [AD&C)，抵押贷款利率去年秋天上升，然后回落. 但是当我们看AD的利率&C loans, particularly construction loans, they went up last fall and they stayed up. 例如，1到4个单位的建设贷款利率在6%左右. It did not come down. 

We do our economic builder survey once a year and we still find that two-thirds of home builders are saying lot supplies in their market are low or very low.

So, 对于贷款而言，还有一些额外的风险因素仍然存在, 如果你没有这些借贷渠道. And even if you do have some growth and potential demand due to lower mortgage interest rates, it can’t translate into growth for single-family permits unless builders can get financing so they can acquire lots, develop land, and build homes. So, I’m a little concerned about that. 

冰球突破试玩收益率曲线倒挂意味着什么，有很多讨论. Of course, 这是股市技术分析的一部分, 但收益率曲线倒挂并不是经济衰退的充分条件. 这并不能保证你能得到一个. 这通常是即将到来的经济放缓和某种衰退的迹象, say over the next two to three years.

但这是对债券市场信贷状况的一个警告. Those markets are telling you that there is some concern about lending conditions. So, if you see an inverted yield curve and follow that up with some data about the tightening of credit conditions—in other words, the flows of lending begin to decline—that then is a sufficient condition for recession.

So far, we don’t see that. 9月10日的消费者信贷报告显示，消费者信贷增长. But the fact that those AD&C loan rates remain elevated is one part of the credit system that appears to be tighter than it was, and that’s a concern. 无论是政策制定者、mg冰球突破试玩者还是其他住房利益相关者, if they’re worried about housing affordability and the relative availability of inventory, they need to be looking at some of these variables within the home building supply side of the market that says we’re not really going to get this huge growth in inventory to take advantage of these lower rates.

Q  Does the inability of prospective first-time buyers to amass a down payment put builders who want to expand into the entry-level market in a vulnerable position?

A  We know from demographics and economic potential that the growth for the home builder is that entry level market. It’s that first-time buyer … that Millennial who is now in their early 30s and renting who wants to buy a single-family home. There are risks. 这就是为什么我说有增长潜力但波动性更高, depending on credit market conditions, builders’ financing costs could go up. 

During most of this recovery, regulatory costs are higher, and with building material costs in 2018 we saw lumber prices go on a roller-coaster ride. At one point, prices went up 60%, easily adding $8,000 to a typical single-family home. 如果你考虑到风险，建筑商需要偿还贷款, and they’ve got to cover those costs, some of which are highly volatile. As growth cycles age, risk tends to grow, 我认为这就是我们在债券市场所看到的情况. 经济进一步放缓的风险越来越大, 即使你看一下基本的经济变量, 现在的情况似乎相当健康. 

Q  So, as consumer confidence goes, it doesn’t necessarily mean that builder confidence will follow?

A  Yes. We saw the builder confidence index take a big drop last fall, and it’s been recovering since then. 它继续上升到65，这是积极的. In the comments from the survey, what we hear builders say is, “我担心我找不到熟练工人. I’m worried about regulatory costs [which includes things like impact fees], and while I have potential buyers, they can’t all call me for a mortgage because of pricing and affordability constraints.”

Q  Where does the NAHB stand on whether builders are overleveraged or not with land?

A  这取决于建造者的类型和他们在哪里建造. There are large metro markets with plenty of lots, but they’re in the wrong locations. Our geography index said that at the start of the year exurban locations were the only places that were growing.

Single-family permits were declining in the outer suburbs, inner suburbs, and core areas. Exurbs were growing because there was some lot availability in those markets.  

If you talk to some analysts, they may say that lot supplies are fairly large for this metro area. 嗯，这取决于在市区的哪个地方. 这部分取决于建造者的类型. Larger builders with deeper pockets are going to have more favorable access to land and lots. We do our economic builder survey once a year and we still find that two-thirds of home builders are saying lot supplies in their market are low or very low. So I would still list lots as being scarce or relatively scarce on a nationwide basis for the typical builder—that builder being a small or regional type builder.

I think a lot of that is due to seeing relatively positive market conditions in front of them, but lots may not be at the prices where builders incorporate them into their business model and can supply homes that meet potential buyers’ budget constraints. 试图制定更有效的分区规则, 试图对抗影响费的增长, trying to increase the speed at which land development occurs; all those things are factors that could really help with achieving housing affordability.

NAHB对房价升值的展望是什么?

A  Some volatility. What we noticed over the last two years is that home price growth has been slowing. Up until that period, home prices have definitely been rising faster than income growth. In a healthy market, home prices should be growing exactly along the lines of income growth. 当它们生长得更快时，通常是稀缺的标志. When they’re growing faster than income growth, it’s usually a sign of oversupply. 

Without a doubt, this market has been characterized by undersupply since we got through the Great Recession because of the lack of home building, 所以房价的增长比收入的增长要快一些. That gap has closed a bit. Frank Nothaft发表了一些有趣的评论, chief economist at CoreLogic, 谁希望再加速一点.4% by July 2020]. I was a little surprised it was that strong because when Frank and I talked about it going into 2017, 并思考税收改革会带来什么, 我们说过，我们不指望税改会减少住宅建筑行业, 但我们确实认为这会减缓房价增长. 

这个周期实际上是冰球突破试玩经济放缓的. 这与持续多年的大衰退类型的环境无关. 

There were other estimates out there that were more dramatic, such as a 10% decline in home prices. 我们不认为我们会得到这样的东西, 但我们确实认为房价增长将放缓. It did. I think what they’re looking at—not us—is that lower rates are going to bring some sideline demand in and home price growth. Our forecast is home price growth continuing a bit faster than income growth. Both could end up slowing if we go into something a little more serious than a growth recession. 

One of the things I think we can look at with current conditions is for builders to ask: Is today more like 1998, or is it more like the year 2000? In both of those environments, you had concerns about a slowing economy: 1998 was connected to concerns about financial issues with financial investment firms, but the Fed was able to ease those concerns and the growth cycle continued; in 2000, the Fed was easing concerns about an inverted yield curve and then we had a recession in 2001.

我倾向于对冲更接近1998年而不是2000年的观点. 当前的经济周期确实有一些增长潜力, 但如果我们进入像2000年那样的衰退, that would give you a fairly good simulation of what this economy in terms of slowing conditions would look like. 这将意味着价格增长放缓，住宅建设放缓. 

这个周期实际上是冰球突破试玩经济放缓的. 这与持续多年的大衰退类型的环境无关. 是季度对季度，回顾你的战略计划. 我会给你们另一个与此一致的例子. 尽管自去年秋天以来，我们已经看到国内生产放缓, 住宅建设劳动力规模持续增长. That is sort of the opposite of what you would expect given that single-family permits are down. 你不会期望住宅建筑有很大的增长, 而是因为我们缺乏熟练的劳动力, 人们仍然想让人才进入他们的公司，这样当增长恢复的时候, they’re ready for it. 

We’ve had years of under-building. 建筑商对宏观经济逆风持谨慎态度, but they still see a lot of demographic potential over the next five to 10 years as those Millennials progressively move into their mid-30s and early 40s and really represent a lot of potential home building demand, 尤其是在独栋住宅方面.